Are the climate targets for 2030 still achievable?
The new German government wants to accelerate the energy turnaround in Germany and raise expansion targets. According to a report published by the Environment Ministry in the fall of 2021, still under the old federal government, Germany will fall well short of its own climate targets set for 2030. According to the report, without drastic measures, CO2 emissions will fall by only 49 percent instead of the targeted 65 percent compared to 1990. Following the announcement of the new government coalition's plans, it is currently assumed that even the new measures will not be sufficient to achieve the renewables share of 80 percent targeted in the energy sector. At the same time, it can be assumed that the energy transition and the higher proportion of electromobility will also increase the demand for electricity, which is why the expansion of photovoltaics and wind power will have to be accelerated significantly to avoid a power shortage. In the current Energy Transition Index, the business consulting company McKinsey concludes that the expansion of photovoltaics must be quadrupled, and onshore wind power doubled by 2030. Wind power plants at sea would even have to be tripled.
According to the analysts, the planned implementation of the energy turnaround by 2030 seems rather unrealistic. The nuclear and coal phase-out planned to date alone would require Germany to build two to three new power plants each year to continue to ensure security of supply in Germany. These will primarily be gas-fired power plants, hydrogen power plants or new biomass power plants.
According to the plans of the "traffic light" government, the share of renewables in the heating sector will increase to 50 percent by 2030. In 2020, it was still at 15.6 percent. To close the gap of over 30 percent, many more buildings would have to be renovated and retrofitted with heat pumps. In purely arithmetical terms, around 500,000 heat pumps would have to be installed every year. But this would again significantly increase the demand for electricity, as would the large number of new registrations of electric cars.
It is difficult to estimate to what extent a doubling from 7 million to 15 million e-cars by 2030 can still be achieved. However, the electromobility sector is currently growing exponentially, which may also be due to rising fuel prices.
Sources
pv-magazine, article by Sandra Enkhardt (3/9/2022):
https://www.pv-magazine.de/2022/03/09/mckinsey-energiewendeindex-200-gigawatt-bedarfsluecke-bis-2030-droht-ausbau-von-photovoltaik-vervierfachen/, accessed: 3/12/2022 at 1 p.m.
tagesschau.de (8/19/2021):
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/klimaziele-2030-verfehlt-101.html, accessed: 3/12/2022 at 5 p.m.